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Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa

September 1, 2020 - 10:57 -- Open Access
Smith MW, Willis T, Alfieri L, James WHM, Trigg MA, Yamazaki D, Hardy AJ, Bisselink B, De Roo A, Macklin MG, Thomas CJ
Nat Commun. 2020 Aug 28;11(1):4353

Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied.

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